11 million is conservative, and so is the timeline. This will happen faster and at a larger scale than this estimation.
This is extrapolating for current trends & data, it is not accounting for the J-curve of "holy fuck" that is inevitable with technology adoption curves in the past. In fact, I'm not sure you can even look at the adoption curves of the internet itself, or smart phones, or social media, or anything, as some sort of thumb-in-the-wind barometer for comparison.
Literally everything embedded within capitalism will adopt AI. Everything. It is how you effectively compete, and AI will enable you to outmaneuver your AI-less or AI-dumb competition. Not adopting AI would be like refusing to make a free web presence to aid in customer discovery. Sure, you can do it, but 99% of the time that decision leaves you behind.
This idea is not new. In the 60s, Everett Rogers published the Diffusion of innovations theory, and going down that rabbit hole will get you exposed to similar concepts at play, like the Network effect and more.
The interesting part of all this is what the labor market will look like with this much displacement because of AI. It's a little bit of a uroboros or catch 22. Think about it: we are racing to adopt AI to not be eliminated by AI, but one goal of AI in capitalism is to eliminate as many jobs as possible to maximize profits.
And sure, there's the veiled hope that AI will create jobs, and it certainly has today, because people are needed to create this new reality. Maybe they'll be there tomorrow, too, in some unforeseen opportunity that arises because of AI. That would be a balm.